(Bloomberg) — The Iranian regime isn’t close to falling and officials are coalescing around the remaining leaders, according to western intelligence assessments and people familiar with the matter.
Strikes by the US and Israel have killed several top Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani, a veteran Iranian politician who was often used as a negotiator with foreign governments. Many of the surviving officials, including the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, are hardliners.
President Donald Trump has voiced strong frustration at allies for not responding positively to his request they use their own military assets to help keep oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since the beginning of the war in Iran.
At the beginning of the war, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte initially offered glowing praise for Trump. That was followed by a protracted silence due to internal pushback within the alliance, where many countries are wary of being pulled into the conflict, according to people familiar with the matter, who demanded anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.
On Wednesday, Rutte supported the goal of preventing Iran from building nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, but offered a more nuanced assessment of Trump’s request.
“I have been in contact with many allies,” he told reporters in Brussels. “We all agree, of course, that the strait has to open up again. And what I know is that allies are working together, discussing how to do that, what is the best way to do it.”
NATO officials declined to comment.
Iran has fired more than 3,000 missiles since the war began on Feb. 28, according to the people and intelligence estimates. Even with interception rates over 90%, that has put tremendous strain on stockpiles of interceptors, as ballistic missiles often require several shots to destroy using expensive weapons such as the $4 million Patriot PAC-3 missile. Lower-end threats such as the Shahed-136 rudimentary cruise missiles can be shot down more cheaply, but were often targeted by Patriot batteries early in the war.
Although attacks have leveled off at a handful of ballistic missiles and a few dozen Shaheds around the Gulf each day, global stockpiles of interceptors are worryingly low, Bloomberg previously reported. Ukraine, by contrast, produces massive quantities of anti-drone defenses capable of defeating Shaheds cheaply but its companies are restricted from exporting weapons that could contribute to their country’s own war effort as it fights off Russian forces.
US and Israeli estimates put Tehran’s prewar ballistic missile inventory at 2,500, with an unknown but larger number of Shahed-136 rudimentary cruise missiles. Although ballistic missile production has most likely been halted by airstrikes, Shaheds are simple to build and Iran is believed to be building more.
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