(Bloomberg) — Denmark’s largest lender has slashed its forecast for the nation’s economy amid weaker prospects for Novo Nordisk A/S, the pharmaceutical giant that has underpinned growth in recent years.
Danske Bank A/S now expects the Danish economy to expand 1.8% in 2025, down from its June projection of 3.2%, according to a report published on Wednesday. The downgrade reflects lower expectations for Novo’s growth and revisions to historic data by the national statistics office, the bank said.
In 2026, economic growth is also slower than previously projected, albeit picking up to 2.3%, it added.
Novo Nordisk has cut its sales and profit guidance twice this year amid intensifying competition in the US and the rise of copycat versions of its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs Wegovy and Ozempic. Shares in the drugmaker have slumped nearly two-thirds from last year’s peak, denting consumer sentiment in the AAA rated Scandinavian economy. There are fears of large-scale job losses and a broader slowdown.
In neighboring Sweden, the economy will grow a slower-than-expected 1.1% this year before accelerating to 2% in 2026, adjusted for calendar impacts, as the turbulence caused by unpredictable US trade policy fades, Danske Bank said.
The Swedish central bank will make one more 25 basis-point interest-rate cut this year to support the recovery as a spike in price pressures over the summer eases, Danske Bank said. Danske had previously expected unchanged rates at 2% until mid-2026.
“At present, inflation is too high for new rate cuts, but we now expect the Riksbank to lower the policy rate to 1.75% in November as inflation prospects improve and resource utilization remains low,” Danske Bank Economist Susanne Spector said in emailed comments.
In Norway, economic growth excluding the off-shore oil and gas sector will probably accelerate to 1.9% this year, versus 1.7% expected earlier, Danske said, citing improving productivity. It kept next year’s forecast at 1.6%, helped by an additional 125 basis points of monetary easing by the end of 2026.
–With assistance from Ott Ummelas.
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