Remember Paul the Octopus at 2010 FIFA World Cup? Amassing eight correct predictions out of eight – matches involving Germany only, Paul the Octopus became an instant celebrity and was hailed as an oracle globally. 16 years down the line, a German economist is once again in the news with a forecast model that has successfully predicted the winners of last three FIFA World Cups since 2014 and picked a new champion in 2016.
With just less than 10 days to go before the FIFA World Cup 2026 kicks off in the United States, Mexico and Canada, Joachim Klement has predicted that Argentina won’t be defending their title won four years ago in Qatar. Instead, the Netherlands will be crowned champions for the first time in history – a dream that remained unfulfilled in 1974, 1978, and 2010.
Klement created his model to poke fun at his profession. “Twelve years ago, when I started this, I thought this was a nice way to show how full of themselves economists are, thinking they can predict absolutely everything, even if they have no idea what is going on,” Klement was quoted as saying to SBS Dutch. He predicted Germany to win in 2014.
Then Klement formula predicted France to win in Russia in 2018, followed by Argentina in 2022 in Qatar.
What does Joachim Klement model in 2026 say?
Klement’s forecast say the Netherlands will outclass Japan, Tunisia and Sweden in the group stage before winning against Morocco and Canada in the knockout stage. In the quarterfinal, the Dutch will go past France before facing Spain in the last four.
“France would be more likely to win against the Netherlands, because it’s one of the best teams in the world right now,” Klement said. “But … on any given day, in any given match, luck plays an important role and, in fact, about 50 per cent of the outcome is given by luck.”
“If Holland makes it to the semi-finals, it will be a situation where it already has a lot of confidence that it can beat anyone. I think it will literally be 50/50 if you beat Spain or not, and if you beat Spain, then the path is clear to the World Cup.” added Klement.
In the final, the Netherlands will take on Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal. Defending champions Argentina will take the exit route in quarterfinals.
How does Joachim Klement’s model work?
In particular, Klement uses proprietary econometric model which takes into consideration five factors for a team’s success. They are GDP per capita, population, temperature, FIFA ranking points, and the host-country advantage.
“If you look at my model, it uses economic fundamentals and climate fundamentals to assess how strong a team should be, and the closer two teams are in strength, the more luck plays a role in any individual match,” Klement explained.
Can Netherlands win maiden FIFA World Cup?
The Dutch are placed in a relatively easy group and favourites to top Group F. The strength of Roeland Koeman’s squad lies in defense which is led by Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk, along with Nathan Aké, Jurriën Timber, and Denzel Dumfries. They are complemented by a gifted midfield which has Frenkie de Jong and Ryan Gravenberch.
Surpisingly, the Dutch has never been to lift the title despite coming close on three occasions. They suffered heartbreaks against West Germany in 1974 final, Argentina in 1978 final, and to Spain in 2010. With a balanced side this time, can Netherlands break the deadlock in 2026?
Netherlands’ FIFA World Cup 2026 squad
Goalkeepers: Mark Flekken, Robin Roefs, Bart Verbruggen
Defenders: Nathan Ake, Denzel Dumfries, Jorrel Hato, Jurrien Timber, Jan Paul van Hecke, Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven
Midfielders: Frenkie de Jong, Marten de Roon, Ryan Gravenberch, Teun Koopmeiners, Tijjani Reijnders, Guus Til, Quinten Timber, Mats Wieffer
Forwards: Brian Brobbey, Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo, Justin Kluivert, Noa Lang, Donyell Malen, Crysencio Summerville, Wout Weghorst
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