Survey findings: Policymakers must heed what India’s small exporters are saying

The findings reveal a striking paradox. The headline Trade Confidence Index (TCI) stands at a robust 74.3, signalling strong optimism about near-term export growth. Yet, the Net Trade Confidence Score (NTCS), which adjusts for risks, drops sharply to 56.4. This 17.9-point gap is the quantitative expression of what may be called a ‘confidence trap’: firms believe in their capabilities, but not in the stability of the environment in which they operate.